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Vancouver Housing Bubble: Why Chinese Investors Will Return

ashley nielsen real estate - chinese investors in vancouver no housing bubble

 

Bloomberg recently published a chart highlighting the relationship between Vancouver real estate and China's economy, suggesting that what happens in China has as much influence on the city's housing market as Canada's own economic policies.

Bloomberg pointed out that China's gross domestic product expanded by an annual rate of 7.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012 — up from 7.4 per cent in the prior quarter and the economy's first acceleration in two years.

Their graph established a direct correlation between China's GDP and Vancouver's housing prices — as China's GDP rose, so did Vancouver's real estate prices. If the trend holds, Bloomberg predicts, Vancouver's real estate prices should also soon rise.

Correlation isn't causation — and Vancouver's real estate market is certainly complex — but the Bloomberg research supports my prediction that Chinese buyers will be back to Vancouver real estate sooner rather than later.

Some background: Over the past year, mainland Chinese investor buyers all but disappeared from Vancouver's real estate marketplace, contributing to what was already a softening market in metro Vancouver.

But why did Chinese investors disappear in the first place? During the first decade of the new millennium, real estate prices in China were astronomic — even more expensive than Vancouver. In 2009, China introduced a policy designed to cool investor speculation in real estate. This policy, which was meant to help ordinary citizens buy their own home, stipulated that buyers could purchase their first home with 30 per cent cash down, but if they bought a second property, a whopping 60 per cent down payment is required. As a result of the policy, prices in major cities such as Beijing dropped by 30 to 40 per cent, effectively halting the investor market in the country.

What the policy did was greatly reduce the amount of cash investors had to invest in real estate, both in China and overseas.

Typically, Chinese New Year is when Chinese investors visit Vancouver and go on a shopping spree, but last year, Vancouver real-estate developers and marketers noticed the absence of the mainland Chinese buyer, a telltale sign that China's policy was working and that the overall economy was slowing down.

Here's why I think Chinese investors will return. In China, the real-estate industry accounts for 11 per cent of the country's overall GDP. Including related industries like appliances and furniture, you're looking at a hefty 22 to 25 per cent of the country's GDP. The People's Republic of China simply cannot afford to have this important industry stall, which is why I believe that the Chinese government will relax the restrictive lending policies, investors will start getting back into the market and, as their assets become more liquid, we'll see them return to Vancouver.

The brisk return of China's real-estate market means many Chinese will once again look for a safe haven to park their newly regained wealth.

While China's policy change has impacted investors' cash flow in the short term, it hasn't curbed their enthusiasm for Vancouver real estate. The sudden rise and fall in real estate prices that we're seeing now in China, as well as fluctuations in the overall economy, mean that people view investing there as no less risky than placing bets on a baccarat table. For many Chinese investors, parking money in Vancouver feels as safe as investing in treasury bills.

The People's Republic of China has a new leader in Xi Jinping and historically every change in leadership brings with it new policies to create its own legacy. I believe that with this leadership change, we will see major changes in the country's mortgage-lending policies and a renewed interest in real estate investing.

Experts predict that Vancouver's real estate market in 2013 will decline slightly, not crash. And with the likely return of the Chinese investor and the news that the Bank of Canada will hold the interest rate at one per cent, the future of Vancouver's real estate may not be as bad as what the headlines would have you believe.

Lin, Will. "Will Lin: Vancouver Housing Bubble: Why Chinese Investors Will Return." The Full. The Huffport British Columbia Canada, 25 Jan. 2013. Web. 25 Jan. 2013.

Vancouver Housing Bubble: Why Chinese Investors Will Return Ashley Nielsen - Prudential Realty - Vancouver Real Estate -

彭博社最近出版了一本图表,突出温哥华房地产和中国经济之间的关系,这表明,发生在中国城市的住房市场的影响有尽可能多的为加拿大的经济政策。

彭博社指出,中国的国内生产按年率计算为7.9%,在2012年第四季度 - 扩大7.4%,而前一季度和经济的加速在两年内。

他们的图建立了中国的国内生产总值和温哥华的房价 - 有直接的关系,中国的国内生产总值增长,所以做了温哥华的房地产价格。如果这一趋势认为,彭博预测,温哥华的房地产价格也应该很快上升。

关联不是因果关系 - 温哥华的房地产市场肯定是复杂的 - 但彭博社的研究也支持了我的预测,中国买家将回到温哥华房地产宜早不宜迟。

一些背景:在过去的一年中,中国大陆的投资买家几乎都消失了温哥华的房地产市场,已经软化的市场,大温哥华地区作出贡献。

但是,为什么中国的投资者在首位消失吗?在新千年的第一个十年,中国的房地产价格在天文 - 比温哥华更昂贵。 2009年,中国出台了政策,旨在冷却投资者房地产投机。 ,这是为了帮助普通市民买自己的家,这一政策规定,购房者可以购买他们的第一家,下降30%的现金,但如果他们买了第二个属性,高达60%的首付要求。作为政策的结果,在主要城市如北京,价格下降了30%至40%,有效地停止在该国的投资市场。

什么政策并大大降低投资者投资于房地产,无论是在中国和海外的现金数额。

通常情况下,中国农历新年是当中国投资者参观温哥华和去疯狂购物,但去年,温哥华房地产开发商和营销人员注意到,没有在大陆的中国买家,一个警示信号的情况下,中国的政策是工作和该整体经济放缓。

这也是为什么我认为中国投资者将返回。在中国,房地产行业占该国的总体国内生产总值的11%。包括相关行业,如家电和家具,你看在高达22%至25%的国家的国内生产总值。中国人民群众的根本可以不买得起这个重要的行业失速,这就是为什么我相信,中国政府将放松的限制性贷款政策,投资者将开始获得背面进入市场和,作为他们的资产变得更具流动性,我们看到他们返回温哥华。

中国的房地产市场活跃的回报意味着许多中国人将再次停其新获得的财富寻找一个安全的避风港。

虽然中国的政策变化在短期内影响投资者的现金流,但并没有遏制温哥华房地产的积极性。房地产价格的突然上升和下降,我们看到现在在中国,以及整体经济的波动,意味着人们看到投资有风险小于下注百家乐表上。对于许多中国投资者投资于国库券,停泊在温哥华的钱的感觉是安全的。

中国人民共和国新领导人习近平和历史上的每一个变化领导带来了新的政策,创造自己的传统。我相信,这个领导层的变化,我们将看到重大变化,国家的按揭贷款政策和房地产投资的一个新的兴趣。

专家预测,温哥华的房地产市场在2013年将略有下降,不会崩溃。的中国投资者,有消息称,加拿大央行将保持利率在百分之一的可能回报,温哥华的房地产未来可能的头条新闻让你相信的那样糟糕。

林。 “林:温哥华房地产泡沫:为什么中国投资者将返回”。完整的。

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